The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) will improve its Residential Electricity Price Trends report modelling, with a longer-range forecast on electricity prices to better assist energy experts and policymakers with their decision making. 

The AEMC has revised its approach to price trends reporting, with a new 10-year forecast report to be published in late 2024, following feedback from stakeholders, shifting from the previous approach of a one-to-three-year forecasting model for price estimates.  

This is primarily due to market conditions, including global events that have directly resulted in electricity and fuel price rises. This volatility makes the forecast and analysis less useful. 

The AEMC’s new approach will provide greater insight into the drivers of consumer electricity costs over a longer period of time, exploring the impacts of potential policies and various market scenarios over a 10-year period. 

The AEMC is also conscious that similar short-term analysis on consumer price trends is now carried out by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) as part of its responsibility to determine a Default Market Offer (DMO) price each year. 

This revised approach will eliminate unnecessary duplication of tasks between market bodies and deliver a more valuable analysis for the sector. 

The AEMC will continue to analyse what is occurring locally and globally in its work. 

The AEMC remains focused on providing a framework for stable and affordable electricity prices through the transition to net zero, and ensuring the market is working in the best interests of Australian households and businesses.  
 

Media enquiries: Jessica Rich | 0459 918 964 | media@aemc.gov.au