On 10 April 2025 the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) published a consultation paper for a rule change request to introduce two forecasts of reliability and supply adequacy (RSA) in the east coast gas system (ECGS) over the intra-year period. The request was submitted on 21 January 2025 by the Acting Chair of the Energy Senior Officials on behalf of the ECMC and the Honourable Lily D’Ambrosio MP (the proponents).

We are interested in your views on the issues raised in the rule change request and the proposed solution. Stakeholder submissions are due by 8 May 2025.

The proponents consider the ECGS currently lacks a complete set of high-quality information on the adequacy of gas supply and transportation capability to meet demand over the intra-year period. They are of the view that this is reducing stakeholders' ability to make timely, informed and efficient decisions about how to plan for and manage any emerging RSA threats.

To address this issue, they are proposing to introduce two Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) -produced forecasts in the ECGS over the intra-year horizon:

• A short-term projected assessment of system adequacy (ST PASA) – over a rolling 7-day horizon
• A medium-term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA) – over a rolling 12-month horizon

This is one of four rule changes proposed as part of Stage 2 of the RSA reforms for the ECGS.  

Background

This rule change request is one of four rule change requests that seek to improve the reliability and supply adequacy of the ECGS.  

If the proposed changes are made, the reforms would build the second stage of an RSA framework, complementing the first stage changes to the National Gas Rules applied to the ECGS (stage 1).

The stage 1 changes became effective in May 2023 and expanded AEMO’s powers under the National Gas Law to better manage gas supply adequacy and reliability risks in the ECGS.

We included comprehensive information on stage 1 RSA reforms and an overview of the stage 2 rule change requests in our background paper, published alongside the ECGS reliability standard and associated settings consultation paper. The background paper also includes information on relevant features of the ECGS and the gas markets.