The AEMC has released a consultation paper on a proposed rule change from AEMO to improve the transparency and consistency of information AEMO provides to signal whether or not electricity supply is projected to meet demand in the medium-term. 

This forecasting exercise is called the medium-term projected assessment of system adequacy, or MT PASA, and is used to assess whether the reliability standard is projected to be met across a two-year horizon. AEMO will soon introduce a new, more accurate methodology for these forecasts that probabilistically assesses whether the reliability standard is projected to be met.

Under the National Electricity Rules, AEMO is required to produce multiple forecasts as part of the MT PASA. Several of these outputs report on the aggregate generation capacity of each region in the national electricity market. The rules require AEMO to consider the impact of network constraints in this context. The new probabilistic methodology being adopted for the MT PASA is inconsistent with the consideration of network constraints for these specific forecasts, and including them may result in misleading information being provided to the market. 

AEMO proposes an amendment to the rules to remove this requirement to consider network constraints when publishing aggregate generation capacity for each region in the MT PASA.  The impact of network constraints will still be included in other relevant forecasts in the new MT PASA. 

As the AEMC considers this to be a non-controversial rule change proposal, we are proceeding under an expedited process, with a final rule due in May 2018.

Subject to any objections to the expedited process, there will only be one round of consultation. Objections to the use of the expedited process must be lodged by 26 April 2018.

Submissions on the rule change request are due by 10 May 2018.

Media: Prudence Anderson 0404 821 935 or (02) 8296 7817